[Kỷ yếu tọa đàm] Khủng hoảng trong Liên minh tiền tệ châu Âu và những chọn lựa cải cách mới sau bầu cử ở Pháp

Trung tâm Nghiên cứu quốc tế (SCIS) giới thiệu 02 tài liệu của GS. Hanjorg Herr (Nghiên cứu viên cao cấp của SCIS) về "Cuộc khủng hoảng ở Châu Âu và những lựa chọn cải cách mới sau cuộc bầu cử ở Pháp" và "Lịch sử khủng hoảng của Liên minh tiền tệ Châu Âu (EUM)".  Hai bản tài liệu này được đăng trong kỷ yếu của Tọa đàm "Khủng hoảng trong Liên minh tiền tệ châu Âu và những chọn lựa cải cách mới sau bầu cử ở Pháp" được tổ chức tại Chương trình Giảng dạy Kinh tế Fulbright ngày 25/5/2017.

 

Giới thiệu bài viết : 

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, accounted for 20% of the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of the European Union (EU) in 2015, followed by the United Kingdom (UK) (17%), France (14%), Italy (11%) and Spain (7%). As for the EMU, Germany’s share – 29% – is even higher (IMF 2016). However, the German economic position cannot be correctly estimated only by looking at its GDP shares.

 

Germany has been playing a dominant role due to its export success and its “stability culture” which has also been followed by some smaller northern EMU countries. Before the EMU’s creation, the D-Mark dominated the European Monetary System (EMS), which was created in 1979. Member countries of the EMS (and other European countries) pegged their currencies to the D-Mark. Te German Bundesbank dictated the interest rate level of the EMS whereas Germany had the lowest nominal interest rates. Central banks of other EMS countries had to enforce higher interest rates to keep their exchange rates stable vis-à-vis the D-Mark. Te system worked because exchange rates were frequently adjusted. In 1992, the UK left the system, while Italy depreciated substantially and temporarily left the exchange rate mechanism. In 1993, further turbulences led to a widening of the band around the agreed fxed exchange rates from +/− 2.25% to +/− 15%. Overall the EMS showed many tensions and fragilities which in the end led to several appreciations in the D-Mark.

 

The major problem for EMU is that these tensions and fragilities did not disappear after the creation of the euro in 1999 – despite the fact that exchange rate adjustments and other national policies were no longer possible. In Section 2 developments in the EMU before and after the Great Recession in 2009 are discussed. Section 3 analyses policies to solve the crisis. Section 4 concludes.

 

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